Real Estate - Best Long Term Investment

The Gallup organization just released their April Economy and Personal Finances Poll which asked Americans to choose the best option for long term investment. It was no surprise to us that real estate returned to the top position over other investment categories (gold, stocks/mutual funds, savings accounts/CDs and bonds).

Back in 2011, gold was the most popular long-term investment among Americans. However, with the housing market improving across the U.S. and home prices rising, more Americans now consider real estate the best option for long-term investments.

Visit www.brandyfarris.com for thousands of homes in your area!
 

Real Estate: This Spring Will Be Different

Just like May flowers, every spring the housing market blossoms as buyers come out ready to purchase their dream house. This spring, we believe we are going to see the strongest purchasing market we have seen in a decade.
Why are we so bullish on the housing market this spring?
Here are a few reasons:

MILLENNIALS 

Contrary to many reports, this age demographic is READY, WILLING and ABLE to become homeowners. As a matter of fact, the latest National Association of Realtors’ gender study revealed that the Millennial generation has recently accounted for a greater percentage of all buyers than any other generation.

BABY BOOMERS

As prices have risen, so has the equity in many homes across American. Homeowners, having been shackled to their house because of low or negative equity for the last several years, are again free to make a move without worrying about bringing cash to a closing table in order to sell. We believe this new-found freedom will release a pent-up demand of sellers who want to move-up to the home they’ve always dreamed of or want to downsize their primary residence and also purchase a second home they can use for vacation, retirement or both.

BOTH PRICES and MORTGAGE RATES are on the RISE

As the economy improves, more and more Americans are regaining faith that their own
 personal finances are headed in a positive direction. With this new confidence, they want to take advantage of the opportunity that presents itself with real estate still undervalued in most parts of the country and mortgage rates being well below historic numbers.

Current Mortgage Rates Won't Last Forever..

According to FreddieMac, the interest rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage at the beginning of April was 4.4%. However, FreddieMac predicts that mortgage rates will steadily climb over the next six quarters.

Let’s assume you want to purchase a home for $500,000 with a 20% down payment ($100,000). That would leave you with a $400,000 mortgage. What happens if you wait to buy this dream house?

Prices are projected to increase over the next year and a half. However, for this example, let’s assume prices remain the same. Your mortgage payment will still increase as mortgage rates climb to more historically normal levels.

This table shows how a principal and interest payment is impacted by a rise in interest rates:

Homeownership's Impact on Net Worth

Over the last six years, homeownership has lost some of its allure as a financial investment. As homeowners suffered through the housing bust, more and more began to question whether owning a home was truly a good way to build wealth. A study by the Federal Reserve formally answered this question.

Some of the findings revealed in their report:

• The average American family has a net worth of $77,300
• Of that net worth, 61.4% ($47,500) of it is in home equity
• A homeowner’s net worth is over thirty times greater than that of a renter
• The average homeowner has a net worth of $174,500 while the average net worth of a renter is $5,100

Bottom Line

The Fed study found that homeownership is still a great way for a family to build wealth in America.

www.christiefarris.com 

Eisenberg: Economic indicators positive - Baton Rouge, LA

While economist Elliot Eisenberg—keynote speaker for today's TRENDS in Real Estate Seminar—enthusiastically called the state of the Louisiana and Baton Rouge economies a "happy story," he warned that the energy boom won't last forever. "You know it will end," Eisenberg told those gathered this morning at the BREC Independence Park Theatre for the half-day seminar. "Energy booms always end. I would try and plan for what happens the day after. Lafayette in '86 wasn't a happy place, remember that. Nothing good lasts forever. Don't say this time will be different, because it won't be different." Still, Eisenberg detailed a mostly optimistic outlook for the state and Capital Region, celebrating the the area's low unemployment rate, labor force growth—which is above the national average—and 5% increase in home prices since last year. "You're a happy city and a happy state, you really are," said Eisenberg, a nationally acclaimed economist and speaker based in Washington, D.C. By contrast, he noted, the national economy is improving, but at a slower pace than has been seen locally. Crediting less economic uncertainty and increased capital expenditures, Eisenberg said we are now entering the "pleasant phase of the recovery." "Overall, the economy really is improving," he said, adding that he expects "interest rates will go up because of it." The 26h Annual TRENDS in Real Estate Seminar, hosted by the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors Commercial Investment Division, kicked off this morning with Eisenberg's keynote address and will continue through noon. With roughly 680 registered to attend, this will be the largest TRENDS seminar since 2006, according to GBRAR Communications Director Saiward Pharr Hromadka. Read Daily Report PM later today for more coverage from the seminar. —Rachel Alexander

A Home's Cost VS. Price

Let's talk about the difference between COST and PRICE. As a home seller, you will be most concerned about ‘short term price’ – where home values are headed over the next six months. As either a first time or repeat buyer, you must not be concerned about price but instead about the ‘long term cost’ of the home. Let us explain.

Recently, it was reported that a nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists projected that home values would appreciate by approximately 8% from now to the end of 2015.

Additionally, Freddie Mac’s most recent Economic Commentary & Projections Table predicts that the 30 year fixed mortgage rate will be 5.7% by the end of next year!

What Does This Mean to a Buyer?

Here is a simple demonstration of what impact these projected changes would have on the mortgage payment of a home selling for approximately $250,000 today:

 

3 Reasons the Housing Market Should Thrive in 2014

Recently, HousingWire asked David Berson, chief economist at Nationwide, for his opinion on the near-term future of housing. Below are what Mr. Berson believes to be the three things you need to know about housing in 2014. We have included a quote from the article and a small comment from KCM for all three points.

Number 1: 2014 should prove to be the strongest year for housing activity since before the Great Recession

“Most economists expect an improved job market in 2014, with employment growth accelerating and the unemployment rate continuing to decline. That jobless rate drop will reflect more of a pickup in employment than further declines in the labor force participation rate. This will be the key factor improving housing demand this year, even if mortgage rates rise and affordability declines. While the housing market tends to do especially well when the job market improves and mortgage rates decline simultaneously, that combination of events occurs only rarely…People buy homes when their job and income prospects improve – even if it’s more expensive to do so – rather than buy when it is inexpensive to do so but they’re worried about keeping their jobs.”

KCM Comment:

We agree that the job market will continue to improve and that rising interest rates will not be a detriment to the market in 2014. As Doug Duncan, SVP and chief economist at Fannie Mae, recently revealed:
“Consumers have taken the interest rate rise in stride. Expectations for continued improvement in housing persist, and sentiment toward the current buying and selling environment is back on track.”

Number 2: Demographics should start to favor housing activity

“If the economy expands at a faster pace this year, bringing a more rapid rate of job creation, that should translate into more households, raising housing demand. We won’t see all three million missing households return to the housing market at once. (That wouldn’t be a good thing for the housing market anyway, since that would be on top of the 1.2 million households that normally would develop this year; such a surge would swamp the existing housing supply). Beginning in 2014, the pace of household formations should accelerate to an above-trend pace for several years, pushing up housing demand.”

KCM Comment:

The Urban Land Institute recently released a report, Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2014, projecting that 4.48 million new households will be formed over the next three years. Millennials will make up a large portion of these new households. With the economy improving, we believe they will finally be moving out of their parents’ homes and, after they compare renting versus buying, many will choose homeownership.

Number 3: Mortgage availability shouldn’t worsen and may improve

“The rise in mortgage rates already has reduced mortgage origination volumes as refinance activity declines. If mortgage rates rise further this year, as expected, then refinance activity will fall still more. In response, mortgage lenders probably will ease lending standards to the extent possible under the QM rules to boost lending activity by increasing purchase originations. As a result, the increase in new households expected to be created this year, spurred by a stronger job market, should find that qualifying for a mortgage loan will be somewhat easier in 2014 than in prior years.”

KCM Comment:

We also believe that, as the refinancing market begins to dry up, mortgage entities will be more aggressive in the purchase money market (mortgages necessary to purchase a home). There even seems to be recent evidence that lending standards are actually loosening.

 

Call Christie at 225-315-9003 or Christiefarris@gmail.com

Moving Up? Do it NOW not Later

A recent study revealed that the number of existing home owners planning to buy a home this year is about to increase dramatically. Some are moving up, some are downsizing and others are making a lateral move. Another study shows that over 75% of these buyers will, in fact, be in that first category: a move-up buyer. We want to address this group of buyers in today’s blog post.

There is no way for us to predict the future but we can look at what happened over the last year. Let’s look at buyers that considered moving up last year but decided to wait instead.

Assume they had a home worth $300,000 and were looking at a home for $400,000 (putting 10% down they would get a mortgage of $360,000). By waiting, their house appreciated by 13.8% over the last year (national average based on the Case Shiller Pricing Index). Their home would now be worth $341,400. But, the $400,000 home would now be worth $455,200 (requiring a mortgage of $409,680).

Here is a table showing what additional monthly cost would be incurred by waiting:

Prices are projected to appreciate by over 4% and interest rates are also expected to rise by as much as another full percentage point. If your family plans to move-up to a nicer or bigger home this year, it may make sense to move now rather than later.

Should you Buy or Rent?

Here is one simple chart that explains why buying a home makes more sense than renting one.

Call me today for a free first time home buyer guide.

Mortgage Rates Projected to Rise as Tapering Continues

It is projected that if the Fed continues to cut back on bond purchases that long term mortage rates would start to climb. Many experts felt that Janet Yellen, who replaced Ben Bernanke as Fed Chair, was going to be less inclined to continue tapering bond purchases at the level established.

However in her testimony in front of the Financial Services Committee last week, Yellen made it quite clear that she will in fact continue the current pace of tapering:

“In December, the Committee judged that the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions warranted a modest reduction in the pace of purchases, from $45 billion to $40 billion per month of longer-term Treasury securities and from $40 billion to $35 billion per month of agency mortgage-backed securities. At its January meeting, the Committee decided to make additional reductions of the same magnitude. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings.”
 
What does that mean to a prospective purchaser? Currently, Freddie Mac’s 30 year rate is at 4.28%. Here are the projected interest rates for this time next year:

More Americans Confident about Home Buying

Last week, Fannie Mae released their January 2014 National Housing Survey results.  Two categories reported all-time survey highs.

• 52% of respondents thought it would be easy for them to get a home mortgage today
• 70% of respondents said they would buy if they were going to move

Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae explained what this may mean to the real estate market moving forward:

“A majority of consumers now believe that it is getting easier to get a mortgage. For the first time in the National Housing Survey’s three-and-a-half-year history, the share of respondents who said it is easy to get a mortgage surpassed the 50-percent mark. The gradual upward trend in this indicator during the last few months bodes well for the housing recovery and may be contributing to this month’s increase in consumers’ intention to buy rather than rent their next home. The dip in overall home price expectations, though notable, is consistent with our view of moderating home price gains this year from a robust pace last year, while positive trends in perceptions about the economy and personal finances over the next year support our view of stronger growth in the broader economy.”

With home prices projected to increase in 2014 (albeit at a slower pace than they did in 2013) and with mortgage interest rates projected to increase, it is good news that consumers are becoming more confident in their ability to buy a home if they so desire.

 

 If you are looking to buy or sell a home:
 call Christie Farris at 225-315-9003 or email at Christiefarris@gmail.com

Buying a Home? Should you do it Now or Later?

Buying a Home? Should you do it Now or Later?

Last month, the Federal Reserve, in a unanimous vote, decided to further decrease its bond purchasing. The bond purchases were the government’s stimulus package created to keep long term mortgage interest rates artificially low in order to help drive the housing market. Most experts believe that tapering will cause interest rates to increase as we move through the year.

Interest rates have remained relatively stable since the onset of the tapering in December. This is probably because the first round of increases had already been ‘priced into’ the equation last summer when rates skyrocketed by over a full percentage point just on the speculation that tapering would take place later in 2013.

However, as we move forward, most analysts believe rates will start to rise culminating in a rate close to a full percentage point higher than current rates by this time next year. For example, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, The Mortgage Bankers’ Association and the National Association of Realtors have all recently projected rates to be between 5-5.4% at this time next year.

Bottom Line

If you are a first time buyer or a move-up buyer, the cost of the mortgage on your new home will probably increase as we move through the year. If the timing makes sense, buying sooner rather than later may save you a substantial amount of money over the long term in lower mortgage payments.

5 Reasons to Buy Now Instead of Spring

Based on prices, mortgage rates and soaring rents, there may have never been a better time in real estate history to purchase a home than right now. Here are five reasons purchasers should consider buying before the spring market arrives:

Supply Is Shrinking

With inventory declining in many regions, finding a home of your dreams may become more difficult going forward. There are buyers in more and more markets surprised that there is no longer a large assortment of houses to choose from. The best homes in the best locations sell first. Don’t miss the opportunity to get that ‘once-in-a-lifetime’ buy.

Price Increases Are on the Horizon

Prices are projected to appreciate by over 25% from now to 2018. First home buyers will probably pay more both in price and interest rate if they wait until the spring. Even if you are a move-up buyer, it will wind-up costing you more in net dollars as the home you will buy will appreciate at approximately the same rate as the house you are in now.

Owning a Home Helps Create Family Wealth

Whether you are rent or you own the home you are living in, you are paying a mortgage. Either you are paying your mortgage or your landlord’s. The Fed, in a recent study, revealed that the net worth of the average homeowner is 30 times greater than that of a renter.

Interest Rates Are Projected to Rise

The Mortgage Bankers Association, the National Association of Realtors, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have all projected that the 30-year mortgage interest rate will be over 5% by the this time next year. That is an increase of almost one full point over current rates.

Buy Low, Sell High

We would all agree that, when investing, we want to buy at the lowest price possible and hope to sell at the highest price. Housing can create family wealth as long as we follow this simple principle. Today, real estate is selling ‘low’ compared to where it will be next year. It’s time to buy.

Are Mom & Dad Helping or Impeding Your Home Purchase?

Homebuyers, especially First Time Home Buyers,often get advice from family, friends and colleagues. Some of it is spot on, some of it may be well-intentioned but out of sync with the market the buyers are facing, versus what another's own experience was at some past point in time.

I find that many young buyers get help from family members either financially or practically. When family has a vested interest, it’s important to consider the part they play in the transaction. Most of my clients do want the ultimate approval of their parents, but also want to play a lead role in the home selection.  Here are some scenarios that have arisen, and ideas for keeping all parties feeling good about the process.

Collaboration: Being a protective Mom myself, I can understand a parent’s desire to be watchful, making sure their kids are getting sound advice and not getting themselves in over their head.  With permission from my buyer client, I offer to engage the parents in an initial meeting, either on a conference call or in person. One buyer did elect to have his mother on speakerphone while preparing his first written offer. After that, both Mom and son were confident moving forward.

Calming: Fear is evident in many of my First Time Buyer purchases, but typically it is more prominent in the parents than the kids. Past missteps and worry can let anxieties run high. Inviting parents to home inspections or including them on report findings often allows them to feel more comfortable with the home’s condition, or the ability to ask questions. Lots of times, parents offer to help with those smaller repair or maintenance items as they can see the excitement mounting in their offspring’s eyes.

Grounding: One Mom was very instrumental in keeping her daughter realistic about the gap between her dream home and her budget - the classic “champagne taste on a beer budget” scenario.  But daughter was determined to buy a home of her own, even if that meant a fixer. Dad got cold feet when he saw the condition of homes in his daughter’s price range and did not want her to make a purchase at all. Once Mom saw what her daughter would actually get for her money, Mom & Dad decided to help out, allowing daughter to get a safer, and better-built option.

Educating: Another parent was helping financially and wanted his son to ‘get the best deal.’ In a low inventory, multiple-offer market, that wasn’t a realistic expectation. After their son lost out on several properties listening to purchase advice from his parents, Mom & Dad were copied on comp information for future purchases in order to help them understand why lower than asking price offers were costing money in the long run as prices increased on the next round of homes for sale.

I would never discourage anyone from including a family member whose advice is appreciated, especially if that person will be putting sweat equity or money into the equation. Bring all parties together early on can keep everyone feeling good about the outcome.

Don’t Wait! Move Up to the Home You Always Wanted!

Now that the housing market has stabilized, more and more homeowners are considering moving up to the home they have always dreamed of. Prices are still below those of a few years ago and interest rates are still below 5%.

However, sellers should realize that waiting to make the move while mortgage rates are increasing probably doesn’t make sense. As rates increase, the price of the house you can buy will decrease. Here is a chart detailing this point:

Home Sales Reach 7 Year High

There are many naysayers declaring that the housing market is still challenged.
Young adults are burdened with too much student debt. Interest rate increases are killing demand. Homeownership is no longer seen as part of the American Dream.

We just want to let these naysayers know three things: 13,945 houses sold yesterday, 13,945 will sell today and 13,945 will sell tomorrow. 13,945!

That is the average number of homes that sell each and every day in this country according to the National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) latest Existing Home Sales Report. According to the report, there were 5.09 million homes sold in 2013. Divide that number by 365 (days in a year) and we can see that, on average, almost 14,000 homes sell every day.

NAR revealed that sales had increased 9.1% as compared to 2012 and that it was the market’s strongest performance since 2006.

We realize that these numbers are below the record for homes sold during the boom. We also know that we may not see those numbers again for a long time (and that is probably a good thing). But to say that the current real estate market is challenged is totally inaccurate. We have about 14,000 pieces of evidence to prove that.

   

3 Questions to Ask Before Buying a Home

If you are thinking about purchasing a home right now, you are surely getting a lot of advice. Though your friends and family have your best interests at heart, they may not be fully aware of your needs and what is currently happening in real estate. Let’s look at whether or not now is actually a good time for you to buy a home.

There are three questions you should ask before purchasing in today’s market:

1. Why am I buying a home in the first place?

This truly is the most important question to answer. Forget the finances for a minute. Why did you even begin to consider purchasing a home? For most, the reason has nothing to do with finances. A study by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University reveals that the four major reasons people buy a home have nothing to do with money:

• A good place to raise children and for them to get a good education
• A place where you and your family feel safe
• More space for you and your family
• Control of the space
  

What non-financial benefits will you and your family derive from owning a home? The answer to that question should be the biggest reason you decide to purchase or not.

2. Where are home values headed?

When looking at future housing values, we like the Home Price Expectation Survey. Every quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists about where prices are headed over the next five years. They then average the projections of all 100+ experts into a single number.
Here is what the experts projected in the latest survey:

• Home values will appreciate by 4.3% in 2014.
• The cumulative appreciation will be 28% by 2018.
• Even the experts making up the most bearish quartile of the survey still are projecting a cumulative appreciation of over 16.8% by 2018.
  

3. Where are mortgage interest rates headed?

A buyer must be concerned about more than just prices. The ‘long term cost’ of a home can be dramatically impacted by an increase in mortgage rates.
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the National Association of Realtors, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have all projected that mortgage interest rates will increase by approximately one full percentage over the next twelve months.

Bottom Line

Only you and your family can know for certain the right time to purchase a home. Answering these questions will help you make that decision.

Boomerang Buyers

“Boomerang buyers” are former homeowners who have gone through a short sale, foreclosure, or bankruptcy in the past few years and are saving up for a down payment to purchase a home again.

Congratulations Christine!

Congratulations on your beautiful new home Christine! I could not ask for a better client! I am so happy to have you here in Baton Rouge!

The Latest on Housing Affordability

The Latest on Housing Affordability

At the national level, housing affordability is up for the month due to a break in mortgage rates and home prices gains but affordability will be down for the year. What is affordability like in your market?

• Housing affordability is up for the month of November as mortgage rates and the median price for a single family home in the US decreased slightly from October.  In spite of the decrease, the median single-family home price is up 9.4 % from last year keeping prices moving at a high year-over-year pace.
• As a result of higher home prices and mortgage rates that are up 25.1%, nationally, affordability is down from 203 in November 2012 to 170.3 in November 2013.
• Home prices are expected to slow down while inventory figures improve. Income levels are up and should help consumer confidence before rates begin to rise for the coming year.
• By region, affordability is up from one month ago in all regions. The Midwest had the biggest gain in affordability at 3.4%.  From one year ago, affordability is down in all regions. The West saw the biggest decline in affordability as a result of having the largest price gain at 15.9 %.
• Mortgage rates are expected to increase as the Fed reduces bond purchases and eventually begins to tighten monetary policy.  For a look at how the housing market might respond to a change in rates, I recommend this Stress Test by Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
• What does housing affordability look like in your market?  View the full data release here.
• The Housing Affordability Index calculation assumes a 20 percent down payment and a 25 percent qualifying ratio (principle and interest payment to income).  See further details on the methodology and assumptions behind the calculation here.